After the presidential debate between Trump and Biden the polling for Biden goes down significantly.
Recent polls show President Biden facing significant electoral challenges following his June 2024 debate with Donald Trump, according to analysis from multiple news outlets. All sources report that Biden's widely criticized debate performance has widened Trump's existing lead, with post-debate polls showing Trump ahead by margins ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points among likely voters. Voter concerns about Biden's age and cognitive fitness have markedly increased, with one CBS poll indicating 72% of registered voters now question Biden's mental capacity for the presidency.
While the race remains competitive according to some forecasts, Biden's position appears historically precarious, with Politico comparing his current standing to one-term presidents Carter and Bush Sr. Democratic anxiety has intensified, with The Guardian reporting that 60% of all respondents and 47% of Democrats want Biden replaced on the ticket. Vice President Harris leads potential Democratic alternatives with 30% support among party voters, and some polls suggest she might perform better against Trump than Biden currently does.
The four articles from different news sources (Politico, FiveThirtyEight, The Hill, and The Guardian) share several common viewpoints regarding President Biden's position in the polls following his debate with Donald Trump in late June 2024.
All articles agree that Biden's debate performance was widely perceived as poor, with voters across the political spectrum viewing Trump as the debate winner. Each source indicates that Biden's standing in the polls deteriorated after the debate, though the magnitude varies across different polls. The articles collectively acknowledge that Biden was already trailing Trump slightly before the debate in many polls, particularly in key battleground states, and the debate appears to have widened this gap.
Every source notes the significant concern among Democrats regarding Biden's age and cognitive fitness, with polls showing increased voter anxiety about these issues following the debate. All articles mention that some Democrats have begun calling for Biden to step aside, though with varying levels of emphasis on this point.
The polls consistently show Trump gaining ground after the debate, though the extent varies. Politico cites New York Times/Siena College polling showing Trump with a 6-point lead among likely voters (49% to 43%), while FiveThirtyEight's national polling average shows a more modest 1.4-point Trump advantage. The Hill references a USA Today/Suffolk University poll indicating a 3-point Trump lead, and Morning Consult data cited by The Guardian shows Biden maintaining a slim 1-point advantage despite the debate performance.
All sources highlight that concerns about Biden's age and cognitive ability have significantly increased. The Guardian cites a CBS poll showing 72% of registered voters do not believe Biden possesses the necessary mental or cognitive health to fulfill presidential obligations, up from 65% earlier in the month. The FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos survey found just 20% of likely voters rated Biden's mental fitness as excellent or good after the debate, down from 27% before.
The articles differ significantly in their emphasis on historical context and the implications of Biden's polling position. Politico uniquely frames Biden's situation in historical terms, noting that "Biden's slide in the polls since the debate puts him in a hole larger than all but two incumbents — who were both defeated for reelection — going back more than four decades." It specifically compares Biden's position to George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, both one-term presidents.
FiveThirtyEight's coverage provides more methodological context about polling interpretation, cautioning that "we usually like to see about two weeks of data after a high-profile event to gauge just how much a race has shifted" and explaining concepts like non-response bias after debates. It also uniquely emphasizes the limited movement expected in a highly polarized electorate.
The Guardian's article focuses most heavily on Democratic voters' desires for Biden to step down and potential alternative candidates, citing that 60% of all respondents and 47% of Democrats want Biden to be replaced. It provides more detail on polling about potential replacements, noting Vice President Harris leads with 30% support among Democratic voters, followed by Governor Newsom at 20%.
The Hill's coverage gives more attention to state-level polling implications, uniquely highlighting a Saint Anselm College poll showing Trump leading Biden in New Hampshire by 2 points—a significant shift from Biden's 10-point lead in December in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state.
The articles differ in how much attention they give to potential Democratic alternatives to Biden. The Guardian offers the most extensive coverage of this angle, while Politico barely mentions it. The Hill uniquely highlights that CNN polling shows Harris performing better against Trump than Biden does, trailing by only 2 points compared to Biden's 6-point deficit.
Only FiveThirtyEight mentions their presidential election forecast, noting that despite initial post-debate polls, their model "still shows a coin-flip race between Biden and Trump." This provides important context that the overall race remains competitive despite Biden's debate setback.
Politico emphasizes Biden's difficulty making up ground in the polls despite significant advertising expenditure ($115 million), a point not addressed by the other outlets.
The Guardian uniquely mentions specific responses from potential alternative candidates, noting that Governor Newsom has "forcefully defended Biden and insisted he will not challenge the president," and that Harris expressed confidence that "the November presidential election 'will not be decided by one night in June.'"
While all four articles present a similar overall narrative of Biden's declining position following the debate, they differ significantly in their emphasis, historical framing, and attention to potential alternatives. The polling consistently shows increased concern about Biden's age and fitness, a perception that Trump won the debate, and some movement in Trump's favor, though the extent varies across different polls. The articles collectively suggest a challenging path forward for Biden's campaign, though they differ in how dire they present this situation to be.
Articles Analyzed: Politico, ABC News, The Hill, The Guardian
*There may be errors on this page.
Polling For Biden Goes Down After Presidential Debate
Timelines Involved
- Event Date:
